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After a few years cold, China’s commercial aerospace is hot again

Economic Observer reporter Shen Yiran At 8:25 in the morning local time on March 14, 2024, driven by 33 Falcon engines, the star ship, a behemoth with a diameter of 9 meters and a total length of 121 meters.Bokaccica’s self -built launch site took off, dragging long tail flames, and rushing towards the sky.

This is the third test flight of the star ship.This carrier rocket with the largest and strongest thrust in human history has attracted the attention of human beings -people are finally interested in collectively concerned about things other than war.On the Chinese Internet, the launch of the star ship has also appeared on the hot search list several times.

With hot spots, some people suddenly discovered that SpaceX (American Space Discovery Technology Company) launched rockets 98 times in 2023, accounting for 44.34%of global rocket launch times, and SPACEX’s launch quality reached 1195 tons, accounting for 80%of the world.More importantly, the company began to make a profit in 2023, which means that the road of commercial aerospace has passed.

When the Star Ship developed by SpaceX continued to test flight, China’s commercial space was also in the 10th year of openness.

In 2024, Mi Lei, founding partner of China Science and Technology Chuangxing, found that commercial aerospace ushered in a group of new investors, most of which were industrial funds of the Chinese -headed fund and local governments.Mi Lei has persisted in this field for 10 years, and has invested in more than 20 companies, covering upstream and downstream links such as the overall satellite, the overall rocket, the satellite network operation and the satellite application.

Before that, the industry had been cold for several years.

In 2014, China’s commercial space market was open.Around 2016, the novel story of China’s commercial aerospace attracted capital and market attention.But soon, with the frequent tide of capital and the frequent friction between the commercial aerospace and the traditional aerospace system, this market has fallen into a downturn.

But recently, the changes have begun to appear: commercial aerospace companies have taken a key step in rocket launch. The industrial funds of local governments have replaced US dollar funds and continuously poured in.Bring possible market space.

Lan Tianyi, the founder of Qianyu Kongtian Consulting Co., Ltd., said: “At the current stage, China’s commercial satellites and commercial rockets have solved the problem from zero to one.The industry has reached a new stage. Next, China’s commercial aerospace companies will strive to overcome the three major bottlenecks of batch production, supply chain restructuring and cost reduction to achieve economic benefits.

Commercial aerospace voucher

According to the “Chinese Aerospace Science and Technology Activity Blue Book (2023)” released by Aerospace Science and Technology Group, China Aerospace is expected to have 100 launch missions in 2024.From the perspective of multiple space industry people, this year will be the most densely launch plan in China.In the past 2023, a number of commercial companies successfully launched a medium and large liquid rockets and made breakthrough progress, proving that the feasibility of reusable rocket launch schemes in China.

In July 2023, Blue Arrow Aerospace Space Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Blue Arrow Aerospace”) successfully launched the world’s first liquid oxygen methane carrier rocket.The methane engine has a take -off of 268 tons.

The liquid rocket engine usually includes four types: liquid hydrogen oxygen, biased dizomang/tetraoxide, nitrogen dioxide, liquid oxygen and oil, and liquid oxygen methane.At present, traditional Chinese aerospace systems mainly use partial two metacific/four -nitrous nitrogen dioxide and liquid oxygen and oil rocket engines.In contrast, the liquid oxygenum rocket engine selected by Blue Arrow Aerospace belongs to a new technical route.

The liquid oxygen methane engine developed by Blue Arrow for nearly 7 years has a take -off thrust of 268 tons.The BE-4 liquid oxygen methane engine developed for more than 20 years in the Blue Origin of American Commercial Space Corporation has a take-off thrust of 250 tons.

In November 2023, Beijing Star Glory Space Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Star Glory”) successfully developed and verified that liquid oxygen methane can reuse the rocket engine; in April 2023, Beijing Tianbing Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as saidThe first liquid engine carrier rocket of “Tianbing Technology”) was successfully traveled.

The business prospects of recycling rockets are broad. It can fly freely between the surface of the earth and space, and can even stay on the orbit for a long time. It is the key to realizing manned aerospace and freight aerospace.However, the huge challenge facing such rockets is the engine. It usually uses a solid rocket engine and liquid rocket engine. The former has relatively mature technology and widely used in China. The latter has a higher technology update.

The advantage of the liquid rocket engine is that it can be used to develop low -cost carrier rockets that can be reused. It has strong economy and environmental protection, which is in line with the general direction of the development of commercial rockets.

Lan Tianyi said that the technical route of the enterprise is mainly divided into two categories. Some choose to directly develop liquid rockets, which belong to the high -ranking high -bearing mode; some choose to develop solid rockets and liquid rockets simultaneously, which belongs to the two -wheel drive mode.Blue Arrow Aerospace and Tianbing Technology on the market belong to the former.

Lan Tianyi said that the early goal of commercial rockets was to have the ability to enter.The next goal is to pursue economic benefits, including further reducing the cost of rockets and improving launch efficiency.

Yang Feng, founder and CEO of Tianyi Research Institute, said that once the star ship is successfully launched, the cost of launching rockets will be further reduced to $ 900/kg, and the launch capacity will reach 100 tons.This level will make large -scale networking possible.

Yang Feng said that in addition to SpaceX’s leading leading, the progress of China’s Rockets and other American Rockets is comparable.Since its establishment in 2018, Xinghe Power launched a total of 11 rockets, with a success rate of 91%.In contrast, Rocketlab, the second commercial rocket company in the United States, has launched a total of 44 rockets since its establishment in 2006, with a success rate of 91%.The cost of RocketLab’s single -launching rocket is $ 7.5 million, and the cost of Xinghe Power is $ 4.5 million.

Yang Feng said that at present, the average global launch cost is $ 10,000/KG -20,000 US dollars/kg, and the launch cost of Chinese commercial rockets is controlled below $ 14,000/kg.Data in 2020 shows that the launch cost of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is about $ 2720/kg.

Trough and friction

China’s commercial aerospace originated in 2014. The “Guidance Opinions of the State Council on Investment and Financing Mechanisms Encouraging Social Investment” (Guofa [2014] No. 60), which was released in November of that year, proposed: “Encourage private capital to participate in the national civil space foundation foundationConstruction of facilities “

Since 2015, a number of private enterprises have poured into the aerospace field and began to develop and launch small commercial rockets and small satellites.The technology and talents of these companies are mostly born from the two major space groups.At the same time, the sector of the commercial rocket has also been established within the Aerospace Technology Group.

The newly established commercial aerospace company is mainly responsible for the overall design, and then the institutional foundry in the system, and most of the components are also purchased from the system.In the end, they need to go to the traditional Chinese launch site for launch, and these launch fields also belong to the national team.

Because commercial companies are only responsible for the overall design, their output value is far lower than the units in the system, and at the same time, it is impossible to avoid competing with the overall design unit in the system to a certain extent.Therefore, the aerospace field is still a pattern of state -owned capital -led and non -governmental capital.

Every time the development of commercial aerospace moves, it is accompanied by friction and contest inside and outside the system.When this competition reaches a climax, it once formed a huge resistance and impact on commercial companies.

The founder of a private aerospace head company told the Economic Observer that in 2017, the group’s group suddenly rejected his demand for the procurement of rocket engines, which caused enterprises to fail to complete the original first flight plan and had a huge impact on the company.

In December 2019, the “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on creating a better development environment to support the reform and development of private enterprises” did not mention the policy of the aerospace field for further opening of private enterprise access.

Affected by various factors, in the past few years, some commercial aerospace investment institutions, especially the US dollar funds withdrawn, some company personnel lost, and some personnel returned to the system.The rhythm of the entire industry slowed down and retreated outside the light light.A group of commercial companies have experienced difficult moments.Under force, some companies decided to find a way out.

Blue Arrow Aerospace began to develop its own liquid rocket engine independent in traditional aerospace systems and adapts to the commercial market, and realize the full control of all key components.Today, this rocket has been successfully launched in July 2023, and it is equipped with the company’s self -developed liquid oxygen methane rocket engine.The office and manufacturing base of Blue Arrow Aerospace are distributed in Beijing, Xi’an, Shanghai, and Huzhou.

After experiencing three launch failures, Star Glory finally succeeded in November 2023.The double -curve 2 verification rocket conducted a vertical recycling test at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center.This rocket uses vertical recycling technology, which represents China’s commercial aerospace getting entry tickets for recyclable rockets, and the gap with the United States has further reduced.

Several industry insiders told the Economic Observer that China’s commercial aerospace industry has fallen into a downturn from 2019 to 2022, but since 2023, the industry has basically got rid of the low valley.

The Huatai Securities Research Report shows that from 2015 to 2021, the number of domestic launch landscapes in the domestic carrier rocket was 84 times, of which the national team undertaked 77 launch tasks, and the launch tasks of private enterprises were less than 10%.”Blue Book of Chinese Aerospace Science and Technology Activities (2023)” shows that in 2023, a total of 67 aerospace launch tasks were implemented in 2023, ranking second in the world, 26 of which were commercial launch.

New players: local governments and guidance funds

Policy’s enthusiasm for commercial aerospace is increasing, especially local governments.

The government work report first mentioned the “commercial aerospace” for the first time.On January 25, 2024, the General Office of the Beijing Municipal Government officially released the “Beijing Municipal Action Plan for Accelerating Commercial Aerospace Innovation and Development (2024-2028)”, which aims to promote the construction of local commercial satellites and rockets from multiple aspects.Repeat key technical problems such as rockets to accelerate the construction of satellite constellations.

In October 2023, the General Office of the Shanghai Municipal Government also promulgated the “Shanghai Municipal Action Plan for Promoting Commercial Aerospace Development and Building the Space Information Industry Highlands (2023-2025)”.

Earlier, relevant documents in Anhui Province, Hunan Province, Hubei Province, Hainan Province, Guangdong Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and Shandong Province have also released related documents to support the rapid development of the commercial aerospace industry, strengthened investment promotion to related enterprises, and made every effort to deploy.Local empty sky real estate chain.

A number of aerospace industry personnel said to the Economic Observer that many provincial investment bureaus showed that they were interested in commercial aerospace. Many companies producing satellites and rockets were negotiating with local governments and settled relevant production bases and supporting facilities.

Since 2015, a group of social capital have stood up to support commercial aerospace companies, such as Sequoia Capital, Gaoma Capital, Jingwei Venture Capital, etc. Since thenStar, Harbin Investment Group, etc.

Mi Lei said that in the early stage, the capital that supported commercial aerospace was mainly venture capital funds. The new wave of capital that now entered the industry mainly comes from the industrial funds of local governments. These funds are more inclined to invest in medium and late stage. The conditions are mostly locally located locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally locally local.Establish a factory or office address.

Mi Lei said that local governments should choose whether to introduce commercial aerospace based on their own resource endowment.First of all, local talents must have the ability to gather in the local area, and it is best to have related aerospace research institutes. Second, the geographical location is close to the domestic launch field, which can save the transportation cost of enterprises.

Mi Lei said that aerospace investment is special. Compared with artificial intelligence, cloud computing and other industries, its assets are heavier, the listing cycle is longer, and the demand for each round of financing is relatively large.From the perspective of objective laws, Rocket Company ’s failure to launch many times in the early stage is an inevitable process. It requires the entire society to have great tolerance and patience about innovation and failure, rather than respect after the launch failure. The change of thinking is the most.Fundamental requirements.

China’s “Star Chain” ignites market demand

“Star Chain” is an important part of SpaceX’s business logic, which provides business demand and funding for rocket launch.As of April 2024, a total of 42,000 “Star Chain” has been planned to launch 6,000 satellites.According to SpaceX’s plan, by the end of 2024, it will achieve 12,000 networks.

The rapid progress of China’s commercial space also calls for the development of the satellite Internet.Lan Tianyi told the Economic Observer that there is no essential difference between the pattern of the Chinese business satellite market and foreign abroad. They are based on the network needs and orders of satellite operators.Satellite operators will provide users with business services to users in the form of bandwidth, traffic, and images.

Today, the Chinese version of the “Star Chain” is accelerating.

In April 2021, a new central enterprise China Satellite Network Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “China Star Network”) was established in Xiong’an New District, Hebei Province.China Starnet has planned a “GW constellation” plan, that is, about 1,2900 satellite networking was carried out by 2035.

A person close to the company told the Economic Observer that the personnel of Starnets came from a number of state -owned enterprises, mainly for telecommunications operators.The company’s positioning is the role of the chief contractors and operators in the satellite Internet supply chain. It is awarded the bidding for national and private commercial satellites, commercial rocket companies, and supporting companies in the industrial chain.Enterprises entering the supplier list will participate in the project and provide relevant supporting services such as satellite batch development and production services, rocket commercial transportation services, ground measurement control and other related supporting services.

Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Yuanxin Satellite”) was established in March 2018. The major shareholders are Shanghai Union.The company participated in the planning of the “G60 Star Chain” and plans to organize more than 12,000 satellites.Tianyancha shows that Yuanxin Satellite has just completed a round A financing of 6.7 billion yuan in 2024.

Galaxy Aerospace (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Galaxy Aerospace”) already has a hundred satellite mass production capabilities.There are currently more than ten satellites in the rail satellite, 8 of which are low -orbit broadband communication satellites.The customers of Galaxy Aerospace include a group of enterprises, including Aerospace Hongu Information Technology Co., Ltd. (688066.SH, hereinafter referred to as “Aerospace Hongu”).

Lin Guangrong, a architect of Galaxy Aerospace Constellation System, told the Economic Observer that the company has two goals. One is to promote the opening of the commercial aerospace supply chain.The company currently has more than 1,000 supply chain companies, and in 2018, there are only more than 100.Another goal of the company is to promote the decline in satellite costs, a number of levels, from the level of 10 million yuan to a million yuan level, close to the cost level of the star chain.

Changsha Tianyi Space Science and Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Tianyi Research Institute”) has more than 30 rail satellites, and more than 200 users have signed commercial orders with the company.At present, the Tianyi Research Institute has the ability to count hundreds of satellites with an annual output and is building a smart satellite factory.The company has launched China’s first batch of commercial SAR remote sensing satellites, which can realize the monitoring and hidden dangers investigating roads and bridges, reservoir dams, subway lines, landslide points (groups), mines, and glacier activities.In addition, Tianyi Research Institute also focuses on the constellation operation capabilities of orbit verification, and has established an independent operation and management platform for Tiandi integrated networks to facilitate users to monitor independent monitoring, task planning and test management of the tracks.

At present, companies such as Changguang Satellite, Tianyi Research Institute, Galaxy Aerospace have the mass production capacity of hundreds of satellites.Yang Feng told reporters that if Didi operates only one hundred online rolls, it will not be able to form a large -scale industry. The same reason is that if there are only dozens or hundreds of satellites running on the track, it is difficult to form a scale industry.At the current stage, more satellites can form a disruptive improvement on ground service capabilities in the sky.

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